In the developed world, computing is ubiquitous. It is so common now that it is at par with electricity, cable TV, telephone service or tap water. It is hard to imagine life without computers. Today we always have the manual option, such as an operator on an 800 number. In due course, I see such options totally disappearing.
Computing is likely to become so pervasive that eventually entire world will be connected and practically every device and tool we use will have a computer in it. This appears to be the theme behind the “Smarter Planet” initiative by IBM. Business analytics will make better use of the glut of information already generated by the huge number of electronic gadgets. Easy availability of such tools will further increase the demand for more such data and this feedback loop will eventually culminate in a completely networked world.
What happens to the service providers when that happens? There are two scenarios I can see unfolding. As it is, today cloud computing is really cheap and the prices will continue to drop as the cost of hardware and networking keep dropping. This will put severe pressure on the margins that the providers enjoy. Ultimately it will become impossible for all but a handful of companies worldwide to provide cloud computing on any profitable basis. This will lead to monopolies and oligopolies which are not good for the consumers. Governments worldwide will move to correct this situation.
Slowly but surely public/private ownership models will begin to emerge as we have seen in the utility (water, electricity) sector. Of course the pace will depend upon the local politics and the market conditions. The same debates that we see today on education, healthcare etc., we will see in computing as well. Can government do a better job or the private sector. Who is more efficient? History repeats itself.
